Not everything we get in 2012 will be a hit. Not everyting will fail. There are some shows that will just plod along in adequacy and not really make a blip on the ratings landscape but not be bad enough to get ingloriously pulled early.

This list isn’t intended to be exhaustive, however from what we know is coming in 2012 there are already signs these shows might not deliver how it’s hoped they will. These are the risky shows that could go either way; the shows to keep an eye on as they may surprise you (or disappoint you completely)…

ABC1
Jack Irish – Guy Pearce starring in two telemovies as the title character (A former lawyer turned PI cum debt collector) has potential, however it may get lost in the noise. It will surely be another example of great drama from Aunty, who revealed their chops in 2011 with Paper Giants and The Slap. Just needs some great promotion to get the audience it will deserve.
Please Like Me – An interesting move to develop a series on the strength of one of Josh Thomas’s stand up shows. Thomas certainly has support, though how his chops as an actor will translate from being a performer are yer to be shown. If it’s the 2012 Seinfeld it’s not gonna work.
Kitchen Cabinet – You’d think Annabel Crabb and any politician talking turkey would be a great show. Drop it into the kitchen of said pollie and have them preparing dinner during the process and, well, the jury is out. It has lots of potential, and will rely heavily on the choice of guest. MasterChef it ain’t, Masterdebater on the other hand…
Planet America – ABC Radio National’s John Barron & The Chaser’s Chas Liccardello follow the US Presidential campaign and offer a weekly analysis & wrap on how the progress therein. Wonks unite!

SBS one
Danger 5 – I loved the teaser series released on YouTube in late 2011, and I look forward to a longer series on the telly. It’s quirky, funny, obtuse, outrageous and a lot of fun – just will everyone else get the joke?

Channel 7
Dancing With The Stars – Sans Sonia Kruger, now with added Kerri-Anne Kennerley, with no announcement as to the “celebrities” involved yet whichcan make or break the series. Ch7 have just about cycled through all it’s on-air talent… so who’s left?
Pictures of You – Good: Brian Nankervis as host and Working Dog as production house. Bad: Do we necessarily want to see more weepy celebrities on TV?
Winners & Losers – It started with so much promise in 2011 and quickly became a Rafters clone. Significant changes required for it to step back up this year, lest it become the Chances of 2012.
Titanic – The ship sinks. The end. Thought thousands will still watch, thanks to it being written by Downton Abbey creator Julian Fellowes.
Australia’s Got Talent – There is only one Jack Vidgen and many, many Vidgen wanna-bes. Expect to see all of them in 2012.

Channel 9
Mornings – KAK out, Kruger in. Now with added David Campbell. The revamped Mornings is sending a clear message to Ch7’s The Morning Show: Anything you can do, we can do sparklier. It’s not a massive market in morning television, and add in The Circle moving from 10 am to start at 9am off the back of Ch10’s new breakfast program, how Mornings will fare is anyone’s guess.
Big Brother – Sonia Kruger may have been under used at Ch7 but there’s no chance of that with her new roles at Ch9, including hosting the relaunched Big Brother. Info is dribbling out about the series and the only real concern is will Ch9 make it different enough to be interesting yet stay true enough to the formula to ensure the fans are happy. Hang in there – we’ll hear LOTS more about it before it launches in August.
Tricky Business – It’s been (somewhat rightly) accused of being “Packed To The Rafters” lite, just of the back of the promos. Will a story about a a family and their reposession business cut the mustard?
The Voice – With Seal, Delta Goodrem, Joel Madden, Keith Urban as judges/mentors, and an already reasonably dry/haven’t-we-seen-them-already-on-another-show talent pool, can The Voice rise above it’s ancestors (The Singing Bee, anyone?!) and show that Ch9 can do a marquee reality singing competition?
Alcatraz – Do Aussies really care about a drama set in a jail in America, reportedly so hard for people to escape from yet all we hear about are stories of how people escaped?

Channel 10
Breakfast – With Ch10 elbowing it’s way into an already tight market, Breakfast has a lot to prove. Confirmed hosts Andrew Rochford and opinionated kiwi Paul Henry are still waiting for their female co-host to be announced, and whoever scores the gig could be the make or break for the show. Too vacuous and you lose the audience; too opinionated and you’ll be butting heads with Henry all the time.
Young Talent Time – As long as the show keeps the clean-cut image intact, there should be few problems for the new YTT. Rob Mills as host, Tina Arena and Chucky Klapow(!) as judges/mentors, and a growing list of smiling and overly-talented wunderkinds suggests 6:30pm Sunday night will be all Ch10. The audience will let us know on Jan 22.
The Biggest Loser: Singles – The promos look like bad ads for online dating service RSVP, and while fans will flock to Loser again it does carry an edge of controversy regarding body image and self-worth. Can’t be happy in love because you’re overweight? Damn straight, Biggest Loser.
MasterChef – 2011 was meant to be MasterChef back to basics, though the audience didn’t think so. We’ve already had judges tell us the new 2012 season will be the best yet. We’ll be the judge of that, thank you Mr Preston. The inclusion of Matt Moran as a permanent judge was smart, though it still needs a regular dose of Maggie Beer to offset the testosterone imbalance.
New Girl – A show that will only fail due to overpromotion. Ch10 have been “sneak-peeking” this show so much the entire pilot has just about been broadcast already. The show is delicious fun and coupled with new Modern Family should fare well on Sunday nights.

My blog, my opinion. I’m likely wrong anyway. These predictions are made (in most cases) sight unseen/only having seen a promo/read the premise from a press release. What do YOU think will be a hmm in 2012?